Many of us might have thought that with the vaccination of the vast majority of the population plus the early spread of the latest strain of the virus, Omicron, we would be one step closer to reaching a COVID equilibrium in which SARS-CoV-2 is still present. present, but without interrupting our lives so loudly. Many thought at the end of last year that the increase in cases and the "flu" of the virus would represent a turning point in protection at the level of the country's population and this wave would end up being the last of the pandemic.
However, experts maintain that the future scenario will not be so sunny and that this wave will not be the last. With current vaccination and infection rates, in a few months, the immune systems of most Spaniards will be more familiar than ever with SARS-CoV-2, but this does not mean that we cannot get it again. A new variant of the virus that evades antibodies, for example, could show up again to make us sick. And almost everyone who has been vaccinated or even passed the virus several times will not be protected against a new strain.
Herd immunity is the key to putting an end to a pandemic. But the complex thing is that immunity against the coronavirus is not binary. Experts cannot yet calculate precisely how much more protection Person A (triplely vaccinated, recently infected) might have than Person B (twice infected, once vaccinated) or Person C (once infected, never vaccinated).
However, experts have discovered some general trends that can increase or decrease susceptibility, allowing gray tones, the immunology of each person will depend on the number of exposures to the protein and the time that has elapsed since the last exposure. Infections and vaccinations add protection; but unfortunately time erodes it and it is precisely for this reason that we will have to learn to live with this disease.
Each exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, whether through a vaccine or infection, can be expected to iteratively increase the quantity, quality, and durability of the body's defenses. The more intense and more frequent the virus enters the body, the more resources it will have and will invest to defend itself against that same threat.
For this reason, the experts think that the third dose of the vaccine may contribute to this objective and, according to the latest health recommendations, the ideal would be to wait 5 months between the second vaccine or the virus infection, for the third inoculation; and in this way enhance the body's response by allowing immune cells enough time to reflect on what they have learned.
So what to expect?
A pandemic is a new outbreak of an infectious disease that affects a significant number of people in most countries of the world. But there are several different scenarios of what happens next.
If all COVID-19 infections around the world could be stopped, the virus would be eradicated. Unfortunately, eradication is incredibly difficult and historically only two diseases have been successfully eradicated: smallpox and rinderpest.
However, if all COVID-19 infections were stopped at the local level (a country or even a community), we would say that the disease in those regions was eliminated. The virus would still be present worldwide, but there would no longer be any cases within the region. If eradication or elimination is not achieved, but cases are drastically reduced, then the virus could become sporadic, with occasional infections occurring at low levels, something incredibly difficult for our Canary Archipelago, which frequently receives visitors from various parts of the world.
But what happens if virus transmission continues as it currently is globally? At some undetermined point, the pandemic would no longer be a new outbreak, but would instead become endemic, where there are regular high rates of the disease that may even be comparable in numbers to the rates seen during the pandemic phase.
While there is no defined time when a pandemic becomes endemic, it tends to occur when the number of cases stabilizes over a long period of time. An example of a virus that caused a pandemic and is now responsible for a global endemic is HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. Therefore, the term we use to describe the current status of COVID-19 infections in a country is guided by the number of cases, the duration of the circulation of the disease, and the stability of the number of cases over time. weather.
There is also low-level endemicity or sporadic infections. Some viruses that we hear about frequently fall into this category. With COVID-19 at a low or sporadic endemic level, and with high vaccination rates, no mitigation measures would be needed for the majority of the population. Instead, public health teams would have to investigate and contain any outbreaks at the local level, and when new variants appear, there will be waves requiring extraordinary measures.
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