The study on the first confinement is prepared and led by Álex Arenas, professor and physicist in the Department of Computer Engineering and Mathematics at the Rovira i Virgili University.
Scientific experts from the Rovira and Virgili universities of Tarragona and Zaragoza have prepared this research on the first wave of the pandemic in Spain. In it they have concluded that Had home confinement been decreed at least seven days earlier, 20.000 lives would have been saved in Spain.
On the other hand, Álex Arenas also confirmed that Last year his research team sent 4 reports to the former Minister of Health, Salvador Ilha. However, President Pedro Sánchez decided to house confinement two weeks late, at least.
In addition, Arenas reported that in his day he also contacted the president of the Generalitat and the councilors of the Presidency and the Interior. Quim Torra, Meritxell Budó and Miquel Buch understood from the first moment the seriousness of the matter and requested the confinement the day after knowing the data.
Fernando Simón and former Minister Illa, had even more precise information than they required in their day. Even so, it took two more weeks to order the confinement, according to the investigator. If you take into account the deaths in the first wave, 28.000, 23.000 could have been saved.
Arenas concludes his analysis with a retrospective view of what would have happened in Spain in the first wave had it taken seven more days. That is to say, In the same way that if the closing had been advanced seven days before the number of deaths would amount to 5.000, if it had taken 7 more days it would have been 120.000.
The expert Arenas, who communicated the result of this investigation through his social networks, also pointed out that time is key in pandemics, you must always be proactive.
Finally, the former president of the Generalitat, Torra, responded to Arenas' publication confirming what happened, also thanking him. According to Torra, "a deep reflection of what happened is necessary." Torra also took advantage of the occasion to emphasize that "the experts were ignored and total confinement was not carried out when Catalonia requested it."
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